Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Industry Accelerates Expansion: EU Blending Mandate Drives Growth; China Seizes Initiative with Resources, Capacity, and Certification Systems
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is recognized as the primary means for decarbonizing the aviation industry, driving increasing market demand. As of the end of January 2025, numerous countries worldwide have introduced SAF blending mandates, with the European Union (EU) implementing particularly strong policies.
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has set a goal for net-zero carbon emissions in international aviation by 2050. Consequently, the demand for SAF, crucial for aviation decarbonization, is set to rise significantly.
EU Leads with Aggressive SAF Mandate
According to the *China Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Industry Development In-depth Analysis and Investment Prospects Research Report (2025-2032)* released by ChinaBaoGao.com, the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation legislation mandates SAF blending targets: 2% by 2025, 6% by 2030, and 70% by 2050. Notably, advanced pathways like Power-to-Liquid (PtL) or E-Fuels must constitute at least 1.2%, 5%, and 35% of the total SAF used in 2030, 2035, and 2050, respectively.
Data from EASA and ING indicates EU jet fuel demand was 65 million tonnes in 2023, projected to decrease to 45 million tonnes by 2050 due to improved fuel efficiency. Based on the blending mandates, EU SAF demand is forecasted at 1.3 million tonnes (2025), 2.8 million tonnes (2030), and 31.5 million tonnes (2050).
China's Domestic Market Poised for Growth
China has previously set policy targets, including striving for annual SAF consumption exceeding 20,000 tonnes by 2025 and cumulative consumption reaching 50,000 tonnes during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. As an ICAO member state required to implement mandatory SAF blending policies starting in 2027, China is expected to introduce its own blending regulations, gradually unlocking domestic SAF demand potential. Recent policy initiatives include SAF application pilots and guidance on renewable energy substitution.